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September car sales fell by nearly 20% in the fourth quarter, chip supply may continue to be tight

      On October 12, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as "China Automobile Association") released production and sales data. In September, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.077 million and 2.067 million, respectively, up 20.4% and 14.9% month-on-month and down 17.9% year-on-year. And 19.6%, the decline in production and sales were both close to 20%.
Regarding the continued decline in automobile production and sales in September, the China Automobile Association said that from the situation in September, chip supply has eased slightly, but it still cannot meet production needs. In addition, the base number of the same period last year is high. Therefore, automobile production and sales in September increased month-on-month, but year-on-year. decline. In addition, the orderly electricity policy implemented in many provinces across the country has also had a certain impact on automobile production.
   Looking forward to the fourth quarter, with the steady and positive development of the macro economy, the demand for automobile consumption remains stable. However, the supply side is still uncertain. The overall supply of chips in the fourth quarter is expected to be better than that in the third quarter, but there is still a shortage of chip supply; orderly electricity consumption in various places will increase the supply risk of the automobile industry; rising electricity costs and continuous high raw material prices will Further increase the cost pressure of enterprises, which will affect the operation of the industry to a certain extent. Based on various factors, the China Automobile Association is cautiously optimistic, and it is expected that the market for the whole year will be weaker than expected.
 
   Passenger car and commercial vehicle production and sales decreased year-on-year

       In September, while the national energy consumption was under dual control, due to the shortage of coal supply and the inversion of coal and electricity prices, the nationwide implementation of orderly electric wave to corporate production, superimposed on the overall high price of bulk commodities, high international logistics costs and other factors , The manufacturing industry has slowed down on both ends of the supply and demand. In addition, continuously affected by the shortage of chip supply, the operating pressure of the automobile industry continues to increase, and automobile production and sales continue to decline year-on-year.

   The production and sales of automobiles completed 2.077 million and 2.067 million vehicles in September, up 20.4% and 14.9% month-on-month, and down 17.9% and 19.6% year-on-year, respectively. Although automobile production and sales have improved compared to the previous month, and both showed rapid growth month-on-month, due to the high base of the same period, the year-on-year decline still showed a rapid decline, and the decline in commercial vehicle production and sales was even more pronounced. The historical sales volume in the fourth quarter was significantly higher than that in the first three quarters. Due to the tight supply of chips, the company will still be under great pressure in future production.
   Affected by insufficient chip supply, passenger car production and sales dropped significantly year-on-year. In September, the production and sales of passenger vehicles were 1.767 million and 1.751 million, respectively, an increase of 18.1% and 12.8% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 13.9% and 16.5%, respectively. The decline was 2% and 4.8% larger than that in August. In terms of vehicle models, the production and sales of the four types of vehicle models all declined. Compared with 2019, passenger vehicle production and sales fell by 5.4% and 9.5% year-on-year, the decline in production was 6.3 percentage points lower than in August, and the decline in sales was 3.3 percentage points higher than in August. In September, the automotive industry was still more affected by the shortage of chips, which affected the production and sales of enterprises to a certain extent.
   Domestically produced luxury cars were also affected by the shortage of chips. The sales volume in September was only 254,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 14.5%. The rate of decline continued to expand from the previous month, but it was better than the overall level of passenger cars. From January to September, the sales volume of domestically produced luxury cars was 2.489 million, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, which was 11.8 percentage points higher than the cumulative growth rate of passenger cars.
   The impact of trucks on commercial vehicles dropped significantly year-on-year. In September, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 310 thousand and 317,000, respectively, an increase of 35.5% and 28.2% from the previous month; a year-on-year decrease of 35.2% and 33.6%, respectively, a decrease of 11 and 9.2 percentage points from August. In terms of vehicle types, both trucks and passenger cars showed a decline, but the decline in trucks was still relatively large. Compared with the same period in 2019, commercial vehicle production and sales fell by 10% and 6.9% year-on-year, and the decline was 13.1 and 12.1 percentage points lower than in August. As the National VI emission regulations for heavy-duty diesel vehicles were switched on July 1 this year, market demand has fluctuated greatly. Superimposed on the high base factor of the same period last year, sales have shown a sharp decline since July.
   From the perspective of the breakdown of passenger and cargo models, in September, both the four types of trucks and the three types of passenger cars showed a decline. Among them, heavy-duty trucks have the largest reduction and the largest decline.
   The cumulative production and sales of pickup trucks are better than those of trucks. From January to September, the production and sales of pickup trucks were 393,000 and 402,000, up 15.3% and 17.7% year-on-year, respectively. In terms of fuel situation, from January to September, the production and sales of gasoline vehicles were 97,000, an increase of 7.6% year-on-year. And 7.0%; the production and sales of diesel vehicles were 295,000 and 303,000, respectively, an increase of 18.1% and 21.6% year-on-year. From January to September, the top five pickup truck companies sold a total of 307,000 vehicles, an increase of 11.4% year-on-year, accounting for 76.4% of the total pickup truck sales, 4.3 percentage points lower than the same period last year.
 
  The production and sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 350,000

     In September, the new energy vehicle market performed well, with production and sales exceeding 350,000 vehicles, and the penetration rate from January to September increased to 11.6%.

The production and sales of new energy vehicles in September both increased month-on-month and year-on-year, and both production and sales exceeded the previous month, setting a new record high, reaching 353,000 and 357,000 respectively, representing an increase of 14.5% and 11.4% from the previous month, and a year-on-year increase of 1.5 times. .
   Among the main types of new energy vehicles, the production and sales of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles have increased compared with the previous month; compared with the same period last year, the production and sales of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles have also maintained rapid growth. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 291,000 and 296,000, an increase of 1.6 times and 1.5 times respectively; the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 62,000 and 61,000, an increase of 1.2 times and 1.4 times respectively. ; The production and sales of fuel cell vehicles were completed 155 and 173, respectively, an increase of 50.7 times and 172.0 times year-on-year.
   The penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market in September continued to maintain a record high of 17.3%, and the penetration rate of the new energy passenger vehicle market reached 19.5%.
   From January to September, the top ten auto sales companies sold 16.017 million vehicles, accounting for 86.0% of total auto sales. Among the top ten auto sales companies, compared with the same period last year, the sales of SAIC, FAW and BAIC decreased slightly, while other companies showed different degrees of growth, and Chery's growth rate was even more pronounced.
   The production and sales of new energy vehicles are booming, driving the sales of power batteries to continue to rise. The latest data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance shows that in September, China's power battery sales totaled 17.8GWh, an increase of 155.8% year-on-year. Among them, the sales of ternary batteries were 7.6GWh, an increase of 118.0% year-on-year, accounting for 42.9% of total sales; the sales of lithium iron phosphate batteries were 10.1GWh, an increase of 194.2% year-on-year, accounting for 56.9% of total sales.
   At the same time, the amount of power battery installed in vehicles continues to rise. In September, the installed capacity of power batteries in China was 15.7GWh, a year-on-year increase of 138.6% and a month-on-month increase of 25.0%. Among them, ternary batteries were installed with a total of 6.1GWh, a year-on-year increase of 45.6%, and a month-on-month increase of 15.0%; a total of 9.5GWh of lithium iron phosphate batteries were installed, a year-on-year increase of 309.3%, and a month-on-month increase of 32.3%. CATL and BYD rank the top two with 8.87GWh and 2.79GWh respectively.

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