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Wave-like development path: When can the ups and downs of wind power development stop

The wind power installation in 2020 is rushing, and the price of wind turbines that have reached the bottom of the valley has been pulled back to two years ago. The price of 3200 yuan / kw returned to the maximum of 4500 yuan / kw. It seems that the price of wind turbines is quite high. They all say that they do n’t make money. Today, they communicated with a top three peer. The low price order is too big to lose, and there is no way to give up, even if the customer relationship is stiff. In fact, after so many years of wind power OEMs, there are few earning money. The top three companies, two of which are listed, if there is no profit support for wind farm operation, wind farm sales and operation and maintenance, it is estimated that the stock price will come out in the annual report. Dive to the end. Of course, there are also those who make money, the industry chain is relatively complete, and the scale control is moderate, the risk control is better, and there is no need for listed performance, and stable growth will naturally lead to good operation quality.



Why have we developed wind power for more than a decade, or are we still advancing in such a big wave? There are many reasons, personally think that there are a few that cannot be ignored:

1. The development plan of wind power and the synchronization of power grid and consumption are not matched in time. If the development of wind power in the past ten years still touched the stones to cross the river, then it was still elementary school students. It has been 15-16 years now. It can be said that graduated from college. It is still developing in batches. Kilowatts to 3 million kilowatts, from 3 million kilowatts to 7 million kilowatts in 2014-2016, and now there is another 8 million kilowatts to complete the construction in three years , Should not be so anxious.

Electricity consumption and GDP are matched. Basically, the two should be in direct proportion. Electricity consumption and grid construction are also synchronized. The three north areas are typical of asynchronous grid construction and consumption. Fan basking in the sun. Of course, the field and area of power grid construction and design are very large and complex. It is not bad from a UHV application to the completion of construction within 10 years. It is recommended that the development and reform department and the power grid should consider the capacity and time schedule at the time of designated planning. If the consumption, access and transmission do not meet the conditions, do not approve the project construction plan. Of course, this is my superficial opinion, and there are many deep-seated factors that need everyone to communicate.

2. The development plan of the wind turbine does not match the development plan of the resources and the industrial chain. What does it mean, as a wind turbine host factory, we should consider the development gradient of wind resources, what kind of wind turbines are developed at what stage, taking domestic wind resources as an example, wind speed conditions from 8-9m / s to today's 5m / s In fact, we can count what the general wind resource development gradient looks like over the past decade or so, because it is because of competition that new models are constantly being developed, which will make it difficult to reduce the cost of wind turbines. The cost reduction of the industrial chain is directly related to the market capacity. The cost gap between the annual demand for 1,000 units and 10,000 units is very large. Normal model development should be planned and designed 2-3 years in advance, starting design and prototype production, and the use of small batches. When the corresponding market arrives, the fan industry chain has also matured and market demand has begun to increase , The fan cost will return to normal levels.


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